APR CRUDE OIL
The only change in our technical assessment as a result of yesterday and overnight’s continued uptrend is the trailing of our short-term risk parameter to the most recent smaller-degree corrective low at 105.18 detailed in the 240-min chart below. A failure below 105.18 is minimally required to confirm a bearish divergence in short-term momentum that would only allow us to conclude the end of the past week’s portion of the secular bull market. Per such, this 105.18 level is considered our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.
On a broader scale shown in the daily log close-only chart below, a failure below 18-Feb’s 90.52 corrective low close remains minimally required to break the uptrend from even 02-Devc’s 65.71 low, let alone threaten the secular bull trend from Apr’20’s 6.50 low. As discussed in recent updates, we believe this market will produce price action, perhaps increasingly volatile, that shows a slower rate of ascent in the weeks and days leading up to the inevitable top and identify a tighter, more practical long-term bull risk parameter than 90.52. But as the market is still arguably ACCELERATING higher, such a high and topping conditions are not even close to being a threat at this time.
These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 105.18 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and even longer-term commercial players to pare exposure to more conservative levels. In lieu of such weakness, the trend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration.
APR HEATING OIL
The technical construct and expectations for heating oil are identical to those detailed above in crude with a minor intra-day corrective low from yesterday at 3.3073 considered the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new short-term risk parameter this market is minimally required to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count and warrant a move to the sidelines by shorter-term traders and for even longer-term commercial players to pare exposure to more conservative levels. In lieu of a break below at least 3.3073, the trend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance.
APR RBOB
The technical construct and expectations for RBOB are the same as those detailed above in crude and heating oil with a minor intra-day corrective low from yesterday at 3.1388 considered the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new short-term risk parameter this market is minimally required to fail below to jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count and warrant a move to the sidelines by shorter-term traders and for even longer-term commercial players to pare exposure to more conservative levels. In lieu of a break below at least 3.1388, the trend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance.
An interesting note in RBOB is its closer proximity to its 2012 and 2008 all-time highs than crude and diesel. We’re unsure as to whether those former highs possess any technical merit relative to the current mega-bull trend, but it will certainly be interesting to watch the momentum indicators on a weekly or even daily basis for signs of a slowdown in the rate of ascent as the market engages the 3.40-to-3.60-area. Herein lies the importance of even tighter corrective lows and risk parameters like 3.1388.
