Most of the soybean news (dragged out trade war and a large new crop) seems to have been priced into the market heading into the USDA. In order for beans to avoid some recovery action, it will take a surprisingly over bearish number from today’s report. While logic would suggest that the likelihood of a deal getting done sooner than later is not good, there are plenty of outcomes that can support the market. Partial deals, extension of talks, or obviously an actual deal getting put in place would help. Poor weekly export sales with over 400,000 tonnes of net cancellations in the beans. The market has reached new contract lows with the most recent sell off, leaving support at 802 and 794 ½ while resistance comes in at 822 and 834.
Heading into today’s USDA report, the corn market seems to have priced in not only bearish USDA ending stocks and productions estimates, but also a pessimistic outcome to the U.S./China trade negotiations. The market is also being pressured by the 7-day forecast seemingly clearing up, which can help get corn planting up to date, or at least further along than we are. After the 18th of May, the models do show more than 2 inches of rain returning to the Midwest, so this window for planting is a small one. Resistance comes in at 358 and 366 while support hits at 348 and 344.
Soybeans Jul ’19 Daily Chart
Soybeans Jul ’19 Daily Chart
