With a fresh upside breakout in November crude oil overnight and the highest trade since May 25, it would appear as if the bulls have the advantage starting out this week. While comments by OPEC officials late last week dialed back some expectations for a November meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producing nations in Vienna, that meeting apparently holds enough weight to threaten shorts and inspire buyers. In fact, comments made out of Iraq that there could be deeper and longer term cuts out to the end of 2018 offers the bull camp some confidence. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of September 19 for crude oil showed Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 475,541 contracts, and for some that might signal a more balanced spec and fund long reading. That reading also represents an increase of 38,131 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
NOV CRUDE OIL: While the bull market is at an advantage, rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot’s swing is a somewhat positive setup. Next upside objective is 51.08 while the next area of resistance is around 50.89 and 51.08. First support hits today at 50.41 and below there at 50.11.
Nov ’17 Crude Light Daily Chart