The national average for gas at the pump currently stands at $2.79 per gallon, jumping 6 cents this week. Where typical seasonal demand kicks in around Memorial Day, it looks like this year we are off to an earlier and stronger start. This comes as a surprise given that current daily gasoline demand stands at 9.083 million barrels per day compared to year ago levels of 9.206 million barrels. Also, current stock levels of gasoline stand at 236.807 million barrels versus the 5-year average of 227.461 which would indicate that a supply/demand isn’t the catalyst. Recent strength in the dollar along with another interest rate hike expected in June haven’t curbed this rally either. I would anticipate that a peak will be reached once the national average reaches $3/gallon which puts futures near $2.25/ gallon.

RJOB Gasoline Jun ’18 Daily Chart

RBOB Gasoline Jun '18 Daily Chart

Phillip Streible

Early in his career Phillip began trading his own account as a screen trader focusing on the metals, grains and stock indices. He then became a Series 7 licensed financial consultant with A.G. Edwards. Later, he expanded his trading experience into a Series 3 licensed commodity broker with Investment Analysis Group. Most recently he was a senior market strategist at MF Global before joining RJO Futures in October 2011 as a senior commodities broker. As a senior commodities broker his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk.