RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Yesterday’s poke to a new all-time high above 16-Feb’s 3959.25 high confirm the sell-off attempt from mid-Feb to early-Mar as a 3-wave and thus corrective affair an reinstates the secular bull market.  The important by-products of this resumed major uptrend are the market’s definition of recent smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows at 3900 and 3720 detailed in the 240-min chart below that now serve as our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a bullish policy and exposure commensurate with their personal risk profiles.

From a short-term perspective, if we’re supposed to be long/bullish right here right now around 3963, it’s imperative for the market to sustain gains above 3900 to maintain the impulsive integrity of a more immediate bullish count.  Its failure to do so will confirm a bearish divergence in short-term momentum and break the uptrend from 04-Mar’s 3720 low, exposing at least an intermediate-term correction of this portion of the bull.

From a longer-term perspective, this exact same principle and discipline applies.  In order to maintain a more immediate bullish count, it’s incumbent on the bull to sustain gains above 04-Mar’s 3720 next larger-degree corrective low and key longer-term risk parameter.  A failure below 3720 will, in fact, break the uptrend that dates from 30Oct20’s 3225 low and expose at least a major correction of this portion of the bull and possibly an extensive reversal lower.  Until and unless the market fails below at least 3900 and preferably 3720, the trend is up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration. In sum, a full and aggressive bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 3900 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 3720 for longer-term institutional players and investors to follow suit.  In lieu of sch weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are anticipated straight away with former 3950-area resistance expected to provide new near-term support.

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