Posted on Jan 26, 2024, 07:12 by Dave Toth.

Overnight’s poke above Mon’s very minor corrective high at 134.66 confirms a bullish divergence in very short-term momentum.  This mo failure defines yesterday’s 133.55 low as one of developing importance and possibly the end of a correction of Oct-Dec’s rally we introduced in 02-Jan’s Technical Blog.  While commensurately larger-degree strength above 12-Jan’s 135.99 next larger-degree corrective high and short-term risk parameter remains required to break Dec-Jan’s downtrend, overnight’s bullish divergence in admittedly very short-term momentum allows us to conclude yesterday’s 133.55 low as a mini parameter from which short-term traders can objectively base non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts.  For needless to say, a relapse below 133.55 will nullify the divergence, render the pop from that low another mere correction and reaffirm the larger-degree correction lower.  In effect, the market has identified 133.55 and 135.99 as the short-term but key directional flexion points heading forward.

On a broader scale, our challenge is to determine the scale of the past month’s setback within what we believe is a major, multi-month base/correction/reversal count up from 04Oct23’s 126.62 low.  We’re of the long-term opinion that the rally from 126.62 to 27-Dec’s 138.84 high is all of most of the initial A- or 1st-Wave of a major correction or reversal of the 3-year secular bear market from Dec’20’s 178.77 orthodox high.  Given the extent of the rally from 23-Oct’s 127.18 low to Dec’s 138.84 high, the past month’s setback may only be the 4th-Wave within the initial 5-wave sequence up.

An alternate count would contend that the initial A- or 1st-Wave rally ended at 138.84 and that the market is still in the throes of the broader B- or 2nd-Wave correction of Oct-Dec’s 126.62 – 138.84 rally that could still have protracted concessions lower.  While the importance of 27-Dec’s 138.84 high is obvious, we believe being open to either directional count at this juncture and negotiating either count around these recent smaller-degree flexion points at 133.55 and 135.99 is the most practical risk/reward course in the periods immediately ahead.

These issues considered, a cautious bearish policy and exposure remain advised for intermediate-to-longer-term players with a recovery above 135.99 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant defensive measures.  Short-term traders have the option of playing it either way, still from the bear side until/unless the market recoups 135.99 or from the neutral-to-cautiously-bullish side with a relapse below 133.55 required to negate this tack and warrant its immediate cover ahead of potentially more protracted losses thereafter.

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.