Silver rejected downside pressure and is trying to hold above $15.00 in the front month July contract. After gold/silver ratio hit a staggering high this March, silver is trying to avoid a steep sell-off that took silver below 12.00 last March. As I have stated before, silver is caught in the middle of demand/recession cycle. I still don’t anticipate a huge run up in price, but I do think that some technical levels could trigger an extended short term rally. For the futures, the July contract needs to hold above $15.00 to set another leg up. On the other hand, a shift in global recession sentiment could trigger another wave of selling that could pressure silver below $12.00. 

In my view, the sooner we can get a resolution to COVID-19 and people start returning to work, the sooner you will see the price of silver stabilizing. A vaccine for COVID-19 would trigger a friendly rally for silver. Remember the Fed has pumped a lot of liquidity into the economy to make up for lost times. If you are patient, there will be “an inflation” rally. Right now, we are just grinding sideways. Taking a long and or short position could be premature. However, you can employ sideways strategy using options.

Silver Jul ’20 Daily Chart
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Eli Tesfaye

Senior Market Strategist
Eli started his career in the futures and options market while he was in graduate school finishing up his MBA in 2003. Eli specializes in Automatic trading strategies and systematic options trading strategies in futures market. He has been Series 3 license holder since 2005. Eli's is an avid reader, runner, and yoga practitioner.
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