September silver is trading 15.77, down 20 cents on the day. The dollar is materially strong once again, setting up on the charts what appears to be a setup for another leg up. The strength of the US dollar leaves metals very weak across the board.

The technical outlook for silver looks to extend silver down to low 15.30 range. A close above 16.50 is needed to turn momentum up. It is Friday the 13th and horror is upon silver as it takes out previous weeks’ low.

The US-China spat over trade is still ongoing. Aside from exchanging words, there hasn’t been any clear policy and sitting down on either side working out any meaningful resolution. In other words, things will get much worse before they get better. It’s human nature to drag this out as long as possible before the leader’s sit down and iron out the differences.

The weekly chart below in silver shows more weakness likely. Surprising energy is very strong but it doesn’t seem to spill over to the other markets. As I have stated in previous writing, “Silver needs to trade above 16.50 to get the bulls excited. If the dollar recovers, low 15.00’s are likely.”  

Silver Sep ’18 Weekly Chart

Silver Sep '18 Weekly Chart

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Eli Tesfaye

Senior Market Strategist
Eli started his career in the futures and options market while he was in graduate school finishing up his MBA in 2003. Eli specializes in Automatic trading strategies and systematic options trading strategies in futures market. He has been Series 3 license holder since 2005. Eli's is an avid reader, runner, and yoga practitioner.
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