RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

MAY SILVER

Overnight’s break above 24-Mar’s key 26.16 larger-degree corrective high and our key longer-term risk parameter confirms our resurrected bullish count discussed in 13-Apr’s Technical Webcast and leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 25.46 and 24.20.  These levels serve as our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a resumed bullish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed.

A failure below 25.46 will confirm a bearish divergence in short-term momentum and break the uptrend from 06-Apr’s 24.20 low, exposing at least a corrective rebuttal of this portion of the bull or possibly a resumption of a broader peak/reversal count from the early-Mar high.  Until and unless weakness below at least 25.46 is proven, and given the 3-wave and thus corrective appearance of Mar-Apr’s sell-off attempt we’ll discuss below, a resumption of this year’s developing and potentially major bull trend is anticipated.

On a broader scale detailed in the daily close-only chart above, the market’s recovery above 24-Mar’s 25.815 corrective high close not only confirms a bullish divergence in daily momentum, it identifies 05-Apr’s 24.45 low as the end of a textbook 3-wave decline from 08-Mar’s 28.885 high.  Left unaltered by a relapse below 24.45 (24.20 on an intra-day basis), this 3-wave setback is considered a corrective/consolidative affair that warns of a resumption of Dec-Mar’s uptrend that preceded it to eventual new highs above 26.885.

A caveat to this bullish count is the market’s position still deep within the bowels of the 29.91 – 21.41-range that has encompassed it since Aug’20, where the odds of aimless whipsaw risk are still approached as high.  IF last Sep’s 21.41 low COMPLETED a major correction of 2020’s rally and the secular bull trend is resuming, then this market should be required to BEHAVE LIKE A BULL by sustaining trendy, impulsive, increasingly obvious behavior to the upside straight away.  An admittedly short-term mo failure below 25.46 would NOT be enough to negate such a broader bullish count and call, but it would be enough for shorter-term traders to neutralize bullish exposure.  And of course, commensurately larger-degree weakness below 24.20 would negate a more immediate and broader bullish count altogether.  UNTIL such weakness is proven however, there is no way to know at this juncture that the secular bull market to eventual new 29.91+ heights isn’t unfolding, so traders are advised to return to at least a cautious bullish policy and exposure from roughly 26.20 OB with a failure below 25.46 required to pare or neutralize exposure.

JUL PLATINUM

On a similar basis to the constructive silver developments, today’s platinum recovery above both 11-Apr’s 997 initial counter-trend high and 30-Matr’s 1009 corrective high confirms a bullish divergence in short-term momentum and leaves 12-Apr’s 960.5 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low this market is now minimally required to fail below to arrest the recovery from 07-Apr’s 941.4 low, render it a 3-wave and thus corrective affair and re-expose Mar-Apr’s broader swoon.  Until such weakness is proven, at least the intermediate-term trend is up and expected to continue.  Per such, we’re defining last Tue’s 960.5 low as our new short-term risk parameter from which a recommended cautious bullish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed.

From a longer-term perspective and UNlike silver, platinum has yet to recoup 21-Mar’s 1049.6 larger-degree corrective high and key risk parameter needed to confirm a bullish divergence in momentum of a scale sufficient to conclude the break of Mar-Apr’s downtrend and expose at least a major corrective rebound or a resumption of Dec-Mar’s uptrend.  Given developing strength in both the silver and gold markets however and a return to neutral/indifferent/confused levels in our RJO Bullish Sentiment Index, we believe the risk/reward merits have flipped in favor of a bullish approach with a failure below 960.5 required to negate this call.

These issues considered, traders are advised to return to a bullish policy and exposure from the 1010-area OB with a failure below 960.5 required to negate this call and warrants its cover.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are anticipated straight away with former 1000-area resistance considered new near-term support.  Further strength above 1049.6 will reinforce this call and expose accelerated gains thereafter.

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