With the sharp break last week and abnormal weather, the market is vulnerable to a recovery bounce at any time. We do see a downtrend into mid-March ahead of the planting season.  More and more traders see a jump from the USDA estimates for South American production and a jump in soybean acreage from last week’s USDA preliminary estimates.  May soybeans traded to a low of 1017 yesterday, and the lowest level since January 12th before a late recovery bounce.  Long liquidation has been the feature over the last ten sessions with the market down in eight of those sessions.  The open interest went down 25,991 contracts on Friday and is down 85,634 contracts since February 15th.  The managed money category reduced their net long position by 16,361 contracts to 154,307 contracts for the week ending February 21st.  As of today, their net long position is estimated at 100,000 contracts.  The market has liquidated recent length and has held above the 200 day moving average at 1020-2 for May soybeans.  With month end today, the market is down 12 ¼ cents on the month.  Typical new buying that comes with the beginning of a new month is possible later this week but uncertain.  Short-term traders might consider covering shorts and look to sell a retracement bounce 10442 in the May contract.  Keep 10126 and 9946 as key support levels.


Soybeans Daily Chart

800-826-2270312-373-4968Series 3 Licensed

Tony Cholly

Senior Market Strategist

Tony majored in Economics at Eastern Illinois University. He performed his thesis on the market price of corn in the market and the factors that affect it. Tony was drawn to futures trading because of the opportunity to have financial gains in an economic environment. He prides himself on working with customers one-on-one and developing a trading strategy based on the client's needs and wants.

Read More