The soybean market is probing for a short-term low right now. For eight straight days the market has failed to make new highs from the previous session, while also make new contract lows for four straight sessions. Poor export numbers combined with concerns for an increase in acreage are the main causes of this. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 313,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 23,500 for the next marketing year. Cumulative sales stand at 88% of the USDA forecast vs. 5-year average of 95%. RSI levels reaching under 20, so look for active selling to slow heading into the weekend. Resistance comes in at 849 and 857 while support is at 837.
There are many short-term factors which could support a significant jump in the corn market, including loss of planted acreage, stronger than expected demand from China and yield expectations being lowered. These are just a few factors that could result in a large short covering rally from the managed funds. Heavy rains, as much as 3-6 inches, is expected for Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and southern Illinois over the next 7 days. The northwest looks to remain dry, but cool temps will still support. Resistance comes in at 372 and 374, while first support hits at 368 and 365.
Soybeans Jul ’19 Daily Chart
Corn Jul ’19 Daily Chart