RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Fri’s recovery above 01-Jun’s 4230 high and our micro risk parameter discussed in Thur’s Technical Blog nullifies Thur’s bearish divergence in very short-term momentum, chalks up last week’s sell-off attempt from 4230 to 4165 as a 3-wave and thus corrective event and resurrects the up trend from at least 13-May’s 4029 low and possibly the secular bull trend.  This resumed strength identifies Thur’s 4165 low as the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new micro risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively base non-bearish decisions like short-covers and resumed bullish exposure.

10-May’s 4238 high remains intact as a resistant cap that the market needs to break to reinstate the secular bull trend.  The odds of this are much higher now after Fri’s recovery above 4230, but nonetheless, the bullish proof will be in the pudding above 4238, the break of which exposes universe totally devoid of any technical levels of merit.  In effect, there is no resistance above 4238.

The daily close-only chart above shows the market’s close proximity to early-May’s 4227 high daily close while the weekly log chart below shows the magnitude of the secular bull, the break above 4238 of which will reaffirm and reinstate the major trend and expose indeterminately higher prices thereafter.  Per such, a bullish policy remains advised for long-term institutional players with commensurately larger-degree weakness below 13-May’s 4029 larger-degree corrective low required to negate this policy and warrant its cover.  Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure are advised to move back to a bullish policy and exposure on the immediate break above 4238 with a failure below 4165 then required to negate that call and warrant its cover.  Until the market breaks above 4238 however, we cannot ignore the resistance from the extreme upper recesses of the past month’s range that could still be a part of a broader consolidation between that 4238 high and 13-May’s 4029 low.

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