Posted on May 01, 2023, 08:05 by Dave Toth

While last week’s slip below 06-Apr’s 4096 corrective low and our short-term risk parameter discussed in 19-Apr’s Technical Blog confirmed a bearish divergence in short-term momentum, the fact that the resulting setback attempt stalled at the exact (4068) 38.2% retrace of a suspected 3rd-Wave rally from 24-Mar’s 3937 low to 18-Apr’s 4198 high warned that that setback was just another (suspected 4th-Wave) correction within the broader recovery from last Oct’s 3502 low.  Thur/Fri’s subsequent recovery reinforces this count and warns of a resumption of the broader recovery above mid-Jul’s 4198 intra-day high.

The importance of the past couple days’ recovery is the market’s definition of last week’s 4068 low as the end of lower boundary of the latest smaller-degree correction that this market is now minimally required to fail below to break the uptrend from 13-Mar’s 3839 larger-degree corrective low and expose at least an intermediate-term correction lower and possibly a more significant reversal lower.  In this regard, 4068 is considered our new short-term but key bull risk parameter from which shorter-term traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a continued or resumed bullish policy.

From a longer-term perspective, the daily log high-low chart above still shows the market constrained by resistance from 18-Apr’s 4198 high and 02-Feb’s 4209 high that would contribute to a broader peak/correction/reversal threat IF the market failed below 4068.  On a daily close-only basis however, the chart below shows Fri’s close above both the mid-Apr and early-Feb highs to produce the highest close since 25Aug22, reaffirming the 6-1/2-month recovery attempt.  On this closing basis, 26-Apr’s 4085 corrective low close is another short-term but key metric and risk parameter the market needs to stay above to maintain a bullish count.

By closing at a new high for the 6-1/2-month uptrend, the bull as every opportunity to PERFORM by sustaining trendy, impulsive behavior higher.  Now-former 4166-to-4179-area resistance, since broken, would be expected to hold as new near-term support.  Daily closes back below this area would be the first, albeit minor threat to the bull.  A close below 4085 would be more significant and threaten the bull on the next larger-degree scale.  An intra-day failure below 4068 would, in fact, break the uptrend from at least mid-Mar’s low and expose a more protracted correction or reversal lower.  This said, 13-Mar’s 3839 intra-day low and/or that day’s 3895 corrective low close remains intact as our key long-term bull risk parameters pertinent to longer-term institutional players and investors.  A failure below these thresholds, we believe, would re-expose 2022’s secular bear market.

Finally, the weekly log close-only chart below shows the continued recovery from last Oct’s 3596 low weekly close.  This chart also shows waning upside momentum that will be considered a confirmed bearish divergence if/when the market closes below mid-Mar’s 3913 larger-degree corrective low close.  Until such commensurately larger-degree weakness is confirmed, the longer-term trend remains up.  But given the magnitude of last year’s major slide, the 6-1/2-month labored recovery still falls well within the bounds of a mere (B- or 2nd-Wave) correction within a major, multi-quarter peak/reversal threat.  And herein lies the crucial importance of mid-Mar’s corrective lows and longer-term bull risk parameters.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 4068 required to defer or threaten this call enough for shorter-term traders to move to a neutral/sideline position and for even longer-term players to pare bullish exposure to more conservative levels.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are expected.

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.