Following Fri’s momentum failure of a larger-degree below 03-Jun’s 4165 corrective low and short-term risk parameter we’ve recently emphasized, the slide left last Thur’s 4223 high in its wake as the level the market needed to sustain losses below to maintain a more immediate bearish count. Its failure to do so overnight renders the past week’s sell-off attempt a 3-wave structure as labeled in the 240-min chart below. Left unaltered by a relapse below yesterday’s 4127 low, this 3-wave setback is considered a corrective/consolidative affair consistent with the long-term bull trend. In this regard, this 4127 level is considered a new mini risk parameter from which a bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.
As 15-Jun’s 4259 high and resistance remains intact however, it would be premature to conclude that yesterday’s 4127 low completed the correction as opposed to just defining its lower boundary ahead of further lateral consolidative action ahead. Ultimately however, yesterday and overnight’s rebound is important because it identifies that 4127 level as a sound and objective support from which a resumed bullish policy can be rebased.
From a longer-term perspective, commensurately larger-degree weakness below 13-May’s 4029 larger-degree corrective low remains required to expose a more serious threat to the major bull trend and bullish policy pertinent to longer-term institutional players and investors. And now we have a new shorter-term gauge of such prospective longer-term vulnerability at 4127.
Longer-term threats to the bull remain in the forms of the highest (61%) Bullish Consensus (marketvane.net) in nearly three years and waning upside momentum over the past two months. But these threats will only come to the forefront if/when confirmed by commensurately larger-degree weakness below a corrective low like 4029.
These issues considered and while we acknowledge 15-Jun’s 4259 high, resistance and short-term risk parameter as still intact and the level the market obviously needs to break to reinstate the secular bull, the important takeaway from this analysis is the market’s recovery above 4223 that identifies yesterday’s 4127 low as an equally important level and condition from which a resumed bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles. Until the market breaks out above 4259, aimless, consolidative chop within this range bounded by 4259 and 4127 should not surprise.