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Posted on Aug 24, 2023, 09:09 by Dave Toth
By taking out Tue’s 4440 high yesterday, the market has confirmed that high as an initial counter-trend high and confirmed a bullish divergence in short-term momentum, ending the sell-off from 27-Jul’s 4635 high at 18-Aug’s 4350 low. Yesterday’s continuation of this week’s rally also leaves Tue’s 4394 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low we would now expect the market to sustain gains above per any more immediate and broader bullish count.
A failure below 4394 will render the recovery from 4350 a 3-wave and thus corrective affair and satisfy the third of our three key reversal requirements that would then warn of not only a resumption of late-Jul/early-Aug’s downtrend, but also a correction or reversal lower that could be major in scope. In this short-term but important regard, Tue’s 4394 low serves as our new short-term parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively base non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts.
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On a broader scale and as discussed in 18-Aug’s Technical Blog, 17-Aug’s break below 10-Jul’s 4411 corrective low confirms a bearish divergence in WEEKLY momentum that, combined with the arguable 5-wave impulsiveness of the decline from 27-Jul’s 4635 high to last week’s 4350 low, satisfy the first two of our three key reversal requirements. The key third of these requirements is proof of 3-wave corrective behavior on a rebuttal to the suspected initial counter-trend decline that is arrested by a countering bearish divergence in momentum from a level south of THE high at 4635. Herein lies the importance of Tue’s 4394 low, the failure below which will render the current recovery attempt a 3-wave and thus corrective affair.
IF IF IF last week’s 4350 low and exact 50% retrace of May-Jul’s portion of the bull COMPLETED a 94th-Wave) correction, then by definition the market would be expected to resume trendy, impulsive and increasingly obvious behavior to the upside straight away, blowing away 27-Jul’s 4635 high. A countering bearish divergence in momentum either below 4394 or perhaps from the areas around the (4493) 50% or (4526) 61.8% retraces of Jul-Aug’s 4635 – 4350 decline will be behavior INconsistent with a broader bullish count and reinforcing of a broader peak/correction/reversal count. Such (B- or 2nd-wave) corrective rebuttals to initial counter-trend declines are TYPICAL of peak/reversal processes.
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Lastly, and what makes the bearish divergence in weekly momentum so crucial at this time, is that it stems from the extreme upper recesses and key resistance of the past year-and-a-half’s range amidst a return to relatively frothy bullish sentiment levels and after a 41-week rally from last Oct’s 3502 low that was virtually identical in length to Jan-Oct’22’s 40-week decline. Given the magnitude of this 41-week uptrend from last Oct’s 3502 low, no, the recent setback is not of a sufficient scale to CONCLUDE a major reversal lower. But it IS more than sufficient to identify 27-Jul’s 4635 high THE precise high this market now needs to recoup to mitigate a peak/reversal threat, reinstate the bull and expose potential steep gains thereafter. And while commensurately larger-degree weakness below key former resistance-turned-support around the 4200-area remains required to confirm a major reversal lower, an admittedly short-term failure below Tue’s 4394 corrective low will reinforce our peak/reversal count and warn of an eventual break below 18-Aug’s 4350 low. And a sub-4350 break will certainly raise the odds of an assault on that pivotal 4200-area.
These issues considered, shorter-term traders with tight risk profiles are advised to move to a neutral/sideline position to circumvent the heights unknown of a steeper correction or reversal higher. A relapse below 4394 is required to negate this call and re-expose the peak/reversal threat that we believe would warrant a cautious bearish stance. Longer-term institutional players and investors remain advised to maintain a neutral/sideline policy as a result of the broader peak/reversal elements discussed over the past week. We will keep an exceptionally keen eye on upside MOMENTUM in the period immediately ahead, where a recovery-stemming bearish divergence from a level shy of Jul’s 4635 high may present an extraordinary risk/reward opportunity from the bear side.
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