RJO FuturesCast

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Today’s break above not only 04-Dec’s 1.3540 high,  but also the lower-1.35-handle-area that has capped it as resistance for over two years confirms a bullish divergence in MONTHLY momentum shown above.  This strength breaks the secular bear trend from at least Apr’18’s 1.4413 high and possibly the entire 13-year bear from Nov 2007’s 2.1138 high.  Only a glance at the monthly log chart above and weekly log chart below is needed to see that today’s breakout exposes a vast area totally devoid of any technical levels of merit shy of Apr’18’s 1.4413 high.  In effect, there is no resistance and the bull has every opportunity in the world to “perform” in what should be an increasingly obvious, trendy, impulsive manner straight away.

Of course, the key question now is, “Will it?”

On a tighter and more practical scale, now-former 1.34-handle-area resistance would be fully expected to hold as new support per any broader bullish count.  More specifically, the past couple days’ resumed strength leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 1.3290 and 1.3146, respectively, that now serve as our new short- and long-term risk parameters from which a bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.  Per any broader bullish count we’d expect from a market breaking up into new two+ year highs, this market should not only not come anywhere near even our short-term risk parameter at 1.3290, it should BEHAVE like a bull with trendy, impulsive and increasingly obvious strength straight away.  It’s failure to do so will defer or threaten such a bullish count and perhaps expose another intra-two-year-range relapse similar to this past Sep’s relapse and even a broader relapse like that that followed Dec’19/Jan’20’s gross momentum failure.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure are advised for both short- and long-term players with a failure below 1.3290 required for shorter-term traders to step aside and for even long-term players to are exposure to more conservative levels.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly explosive strength straight away is expected.

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