RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

U.S. equity futures are under pressure Friday morning after the assassination of top Iranian general, Qassem Suleimani, by American drones. Iran’s supreme leader vowed “severe revenge” against US forces. The commitment of traders’ summary reported non-commercial traders adding over 56,000 contracts to the long side of the S&P as of Monday, taking the overall position net long and not yet overbought. Meanwhile, the index is 4% higher since the beginning of December and finished 29% higher for 2019. I believe the market is stretched at these levels, so any escalation with Iran will likely cause further stock market selling. Adding to downside pressure is a large discrepancy between corporate earnings and index levels. Lastly, the melt-up in equities goes together with the repurchase operations coming from the Fed. This is pushing markets higher on the back of increased dollar liquidity, instead of positive economic data.

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Ian Bannon

Market Strategist
Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.
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