Stock Rally Paused After Assassination of Iranian GeneralPosted 01/03/2020 9:24AM CT |
U.S. equity futures are under pressure Friday morning after the assassination of top Iranian general, Qassem Suleimani, by American drones. Iran’s supreme leader vowed “severe revenge” against US forces. The commitment of traders’ summary reported non-commercial traders adding over 56,000 contracts to the long side of the S&P as of Monday, taking the overall position net long and not yet overbought. Meanwhile, the index is 4% higher since the beginning of December and finished 29% higher for 2019. I believe the market is stretched at these levels, so any escalation with Iran will likely cause further stock market selling. Adding to downside pressure is a large discrepancy between corporate earnings and index levels. Lastly, the melt-up in equities goes together with the repurchase operations coming from the Fed. This is pushing markets higher on the back of increased dollar liquidity, instead of positive economic data.