Overnight’s break below 10-Fenb’s 125.175 low and key long-term risk parameter left in the wake of 01-Mar’s bullish divergence in daily momentum renders Feb-Mar’s recovery attempt a probable complete correction and re-exposes the secular bear trend.  This resumed weakness leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective highs in its wake at 126.135 and 129.04, respectively, that this market is now required to recoup to defer and then negate our resumed long-term bearish count.  Per such, these levels represent our new short- and long-term risk parameters from which traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of resumed bearish policies and exposure commensurate with their personal risk profiles.

The daily chart of the contract (above) shows today’s clear break below 10-Feb’s 125.175 low while the 10-yr yield chart (below) shows today’s break (thus far) above 15-Feb’s 2.045% high daily close that reaffirm and reinstate the secular bear market in T-note prices.  The important by-products of this price action is the market’s definition of 07-Mar’s 129.04 high in the contract and that day’s 1.664% low in yield as the levels this market needs to break to negate our resumed long-term bearish count.  In lieu of such strength in the contract, longer-term institutional players are advised to first approach recovery attempts as corrective selling opportunities ahead of further, indeterminable and potentially long-term losses straight away.

The weekly chart below shows today’s resumption of a bear market that stems from Aug’20’s 140.13 all-time high and that we believe can be generational in scope.  To even defer, let alone threaten this clear and present and major bear market, this market needs to recoup last week’s 129.04 high.  These issues considered, traders are advised to return to a bearish policy and exposure on a scale-up from 125.16-to-125.28 with a recovery above 126.135 required for shorter-term traders to neutralize exposure and commensurately larger-degree strength above 129.04 for longer-term institutional players to follow suit.  In lieu of such strength, further and possibly steep losses are once again expected.


The only change we’re making to Fri’s Technical Blog is rolling from the Jun23 contract to the Devc23 contract following the latter’s break to a new low below 11-Feb’s 97.575 low today that reaffirms and reinstates its secular bear trend.  03-Mar’s suspected 1st-Wave low at 97.80 and 01-Mar’s 98.125 larger-degree corrective high serve as our short- and long-term risk parameters from which a bearish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed.

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