The move higher this week is all technical. Demand is still a concern. Supply is uncertain. Global market uncertainty is still relevant. After consolidation in the March contract for almost 2-months the contract was due for a break-out. Once 2560 was broken, 2600 was the next level and price needed for the market to close above to see the cocoa market follow-through on its initial break-out.
To end the week, first notice day on the December contract is November 15th, longs will exit or roll their positions. The Commitment of Traders data after the close Friday will also help us see how traders are positioning themselves as we move to the March contract and focus on the new year.
Traders will continue to monitor supply/demand and weather in key growing regions. If the currencies come back into play, look for activity in the Euro or Pound to add to current support levels.