With the Turkish lira and euro snapping back overnight off a combination of hope for negotiations in at least one trade battle, and Qatar promising assistance to Turkey, it would appear as if risk on sentiment is set to remain in place for today’s trading session. The calm geopolitical front should allow the focus of the currency trade to shift directly onto an extremely active US scheduled report slate this morning. Unfortunately, the US schedule data set looks to be mixed unless US housing starts and permits data surpasses expectations for minimal expansion. However, the data from claims and Philly Fed Business Index are expected to be weak and it could be tough to come away from the data with positive USD news. Resistance comes in at 96.70 and 9695, while first support comes at 96.40 and 96.29
With the Yen from the July lows shifting into a safe haven instrument and the risk off vibe reversed this morning, the path of least resistance shifts down in the yen and a return to 90.30 could be seen. With the July Japanese Yen trade balance shifting from a surplus into a deficit overnight, one could suggest the Yen is facing more bearish news this morning.
US Dollar Sep ’18 Daily Chart