Softs

The Supply Threat is Rising and So are Cocoa Prices

Posted 01/09/2020 11:22AM CTEric Scoles

Mar ’20 Cocoa Futures break out of consolidation to the upside as reports indicate production issues may be more severe than anticipated. Nigeria has finished their season 1 month early and reports indicate their production could fall by more than 30% due to wet weather and the diseases it inflicts upon cocoa crops. Cocoa can be an economically sensitive market and now that it appears the drama and fear caused by a flare-up of tension in the middle east has settled down, cocoa prices are moving up. With demand concerns and market anxiety mostly resolved, the bulls have become confident in cocoa again. Fundamentals are supportive, and an outside-day breakout to the upside is a very bullish technical indicator. My analysis suggests there is more upside potential here, and if the market closes above consolidation today I would expect to see prices keep rising.  To get more perspective on what to expect in futures for 2020 you can get the 2020 Hightower Commodity Guide here for free! To discuss the markets with me feel free to email Escoles@RJOFutures.com

Eric Scoles

Eric entered the workforce during the summer of 2007 as an apprentice tradesman just before the big crash and recession which followed. The impact of which strongly inspired his interest in the financial industry and began him as a student of the markets. Eric worked throughout the following years developing strong communication skills and risk management practices in the aviation and marketing industries before ultimately getting licensed and turning his passion into a career as a market strategist with RJO Futures.