Tighten S-T S&P Bull Risk “Up Here”Posted 03/05/2019 7:35AM CT |
To be sure, against the backdrop of the past couple months’ extensive, impressive rally, yesterday’s 2767 low is an extraordinarily tight risk parameter to a bullish position. But given the market’s proximity to the extreme upper recesses of the past six months’ range and an arguably complete or completing 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 26-Dec’s 2317 low, a bearish divergence in even short-term momentum cannot be overlooked as a threat against the bull that could expose another relapse within the 6-month range that could be extensive. One need only look at Oct-Nov’15’s severe retest of May’15’s 2134 then-all-time high before resuming what became a 9-month, 15.5% correction that elicited another round of extreme emotion and fear.
We won’t be able to CONCLUDE such another intra-range meltdown by just a minor mo failure below 2767. Commensurately larger-degree weakness below 08-Feb’s 2680 next larger-degree corrective low and key risk parameter remains required to confirm the break of Dec-Mar’s broader uptrend. But what an admittedly short-term mo failure below 2767 WOULD do is reject/define a specific high and resistance from which any non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts could then be objectively based and managed.
These issues considered, a bullish policy remains advised with a failure below 2767 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and for longer-term players to pare bullish exposure to more conservative levels. Subsequent and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 2680 would then e required for longer-term players to neutralize the balance of their exposure. In lieu of weakness below at least 2767, the trend remains up and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration to eventual new all-time highs above 21Sep18’s 2947 high.