The cooler and wetter forecast for the next 10 days is bearish, and could keep the short-term trend weak as the market sees more back and fill action into the March-June consolidation. Traders had suspected that the heat out west (120 degrees in Phoenix) might shift back toward the Midwest and until this occurs, most crops look to improve. The weekend saw about 50% of the corn belt receiving ½ to 1 inch rains favoring Missouri and Southern Illinois. The Dakotas, Nebraska, and western Iowa continue to miss out on significant precipitation. The new forecasts have much cooler temperatures for the entire corn belt with rains favoring the eastern half of the belt. December corn looks to test the 3904 level again this week. This is right on the 50 and 100-day moving averages and should find some support. With the speculative community covering their short position and most likely flipping to a small long, the trade cannot rely on just short covering for an extension to the upside. Heat and dryness in July will be needed to keep the bull camp active, yet the 6 to 10-day is calling for below average temps in the belt. Support at 3904 with resistance at 401.

 

Dec ’17 Corn Daily Chart