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Tough Week for Cocoa Market

Posted 11/30/2017 11:48AM CT | Hector Galvan

The cocoa market has had a tough week as private forecasters continue to feed the trade information on what we can expect going into the next few months.  As we go into the month of December I am reminded how this is the time when the market can turn on a dime on weather projections and currency instability.  A great example of this can easily be illustrated on how we have traded over the last 48 hours.  Currently the market is trading lower, about 40 ticks, at 2066 after yesterdays close just above 2100.   This is rather surprising after yesterday’s bounce of over 60 ticks on forecasts published by Olam that we would have lower cocoa yields at the end of the upcoming growing season.  Interestingly, the weather has been good so far in the growing regions of West Africa.  However, if consistent rains continue to fall on West Africa there is always fear that one could see damage to cocoa currently in storage due to a lack of proper infrastructure. Furthermore, a strong British Pound is also putting pressure on the price of cocoa.  As the currency continues to build value it pushes the price of cocoa lower as it makes it more expensive to foreign currency holders.  The pound has been building value since the first of November.  I would urge traders to keep a keen eye on any changes to weather over the next six weeks.  I would argue that we still have the potential to retest the March high before the end of January.  Resistance on the March Cocoa is at 2115/2150 and Support is at 2060 and 2040.

Cocoa Mar '18 Daily Chart

Hector Galvan