Looking at treasuries, specifically, the ten-year note, we are currently trading 129-31, up 6 ticks in quiet trade. We had retail sales that came out at 7:30 this morning and the street was looking for up 0.3%, but the number disappointed as a -0.3 print came out and as a result the 10-year rallied up to 130-055. However, that number has since fallen to 129-300 back in the middle of the range from the overnight low at 129-245 to a high of 130-075. The market continues to trade cautiously and moves on any news regarding China.  

Looking at technicals, the market has made 4 continuous days of lower highs, even if the face of economic news that has been generally weak. Now, all that can change very quickly if anything negative comes out on the wires concerning any impasse or stalled talks on the trade front with China. For bulls, a big number on the upside that you will want to see is 130-255, which is the 50-day moving average. If we can close above that level, near term bias will shift to the upside.  Stocks have been strong lately, but are near the top end of their range and with any kind of significant pullback, we might very well see the 50-day moving average come to play.  On the economic front later today, we have a few Fed speakers in the afternoon and at 1:00 central, we have the beige book which is the economic outlook for the different regions of the U.S. Normally not a big market mover, but if there are significant signs of strengths or weakness, the market can certainly move.  

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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