RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Looking at the September 10-year note this morning, we have seen a high of 139-25 and a low of 139-185. The whole treasury complex has seen a very narrow range for the past two weeks. The market is coiling which normally means we should see a breakout soon. Most markets have been in summer mode recently except the USD and the metals complex, the dollar hit a ten-year low yesterday.  If this move should continue, we could see a major trend reversal in notes to the downside. Most traders view a sharply lower dollar as a sign of inflation which could rally rates and push prices lower in the treasuries.  As stated earlier, the Fed has an announcement today at 1:00pm CSTl on rates. Most believe they will stay consistent with their continued dovish tone but if they hint at a hawkish tone, we could see some market volatility pick up. Traders should use rallies of 16-20 ticks in the notes to establish short position looking for continued weakness in the dollar and hence lower prices in treasuries.

10-Year Note Sep ’20 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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