RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

September U.S. dollar futures are mildly red this morning, down about 10 points from the open. Upward price action over the last 8 sessions is not surprising following the landslide move lower. During the worst of the pandemic, the greenback was rangebound between 98 and 101. The index will likely find resistance at the low end of that channel going forward. The story hasn’t changed. The Fed’s “do whatever it takes” attitude has continued to provide market liquidity, which will weaken the U.S. currency unless it takes on a safe-haven characteristic. When risk sentiment is positive, the dollar will continue to have a negative bias. However, this upside correction may continue through the 98 level. When the dollar inevitably breaks down, the European currencies (most notably the Euro) are likely to catch big moves to the upside. Emerging markets currencies are likely to perform as well, especially if we see commodity prices move higher. Often, a currency is supported when the commodities produced in that country see price inflation.

USD Sep ’20 Daily Chart

Ian Bannon

Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.