
U.S. stock indices are bumping up against resistance into week’s end as uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus situation continues. The March e-mini S&P is 58 points higher on the week but has struggled at the 3380 level during Thursday and Friday’s trade. Furthermore, implied volatility is at -5%, indicating levels of complacency are still high in the stock market at a time when the VIX remains elevated above 15.00. This tells me that funds are hedging while they are still mindlessly piling into an overvalued stock market. Gold prices and interest rates would support this hypothesis. Going into a three-day weekend, I would be weary about long exposure at these levels given the elevation in coronavirus cases in Hubei this week. However, adding fuel to the bull camp is the confidence that investors have in aggressive central bank support. Should U.S. stock observe a 3-5% correction, the Fed is likely to step in and speak about further rates cuts and quantitative easing. Support in the March S&P is seen at 3356 and below there at 3314.50. The Russell 2000 remains the weakest of the main indices.
