Coming into this morning, we see the March note trading down 11 ticks at 130.21 with a range of 130.30- 130.19.5. The market was still acting friendly with the note yesterday and not far from the 1.50 yield. Powell just finished his testimony and with not much market movement and stocks having a good day, we are seeing some pressure on the treasuries. I am still in the bull camp because of the coronavirus and how it impacts the Chinese economy going forward. My best guess is we will see a substantial slowdown in China which could have a major effect on our economy in the coming months.   Today we have some Fed speakers and a ten-year auction at noon.

Let’s take a look at technicals for the ten-year note. The market is still in a bullish trend, needing to hold 130-12 on a closing basis for the uptrend to continue. If this price holds, expect a move to 131.16 to come in to the cards rather quickly. If we break 130-12, we could see a move to 130-02 in quick order.   Traders should be cognizant if any new developments come out on the Coronavirus as that should be a catalysis for the next move.

10-Year Note Mar ’20 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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