Futures, equities, bonds, cryptocurrencies – you name it, they all have been volatile over the past few weeks. Uncertainty about inflation and a wide trading range in the US equities has carried large moves into most commodities. Cocoa is entering a new range and may finally be breaking above the 2100 mark in the May contract. Demand has strengthened, supply concerns are present. Dry weather in key growing regions may damage future crops. The euro and pound have gained momentum helping the demand side of the cocoa equation. In the short-term look for the technicals to guide the trade. 2115 is resistance, 2085 is support. As we head into the US holiday weekend ICE cocoa has closed above the 9-day moving average turning this market bullish. Look for outside markets to give the cocoa some additional guidance.

Cocoa May ’18 Daily Chart


Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.