The S&P E-mini continues to be a volatile trade with the market seemingly ignoring any data that comes out, making it difficult to navigate. Volatility kicked in last Friday with China slapping more tariffs on the U.S. That seemed to infuriate Trump and his response was to tell U.S. companies to leave China and cease all business with them. Sunday night, the S&P opened around $25 and at one point was down around 4$5. The low on Sunday night was 2810.50 just below the 200-day moving average at 2811.50. The market has since recovered and briefly hit 2899 overnight and is currently trading 2883.
The two big headwinds that the market faces are continued trade disputes with China and the inverted yield curve where the two-year note is trading above the 10-year. Currently the two-year is at 1.52 and the ten year is at 1.49. This inversion is often a good indicator of a recession that usually occurs 6-9 months after the inversion occurred. We shall see how this plays out, but traders are watching very closely. I believe the best strategy for trading the S&P is to sell rallies. We are in a bearish trend and the risk/reward still favors lower prices near term. Traders should continue to monitor the tape for any tweets as they continue to dominate price action.