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The market’s failure today below 14-Jul’s 5.26 corrective low and our short-term risk parameter discussed in last Wed’s Technical Blog confirms a bearish divergence in momentum that defines last week’s 5.52 high as the end of a textbook 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 26-Jun’s 4.71 low and start of at least a correction of this rally and possibly a more protracted reversal. As a direct result of this combination of factors, last week’s 5.52 high becomes our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and bearish punts can be objectively based and managed.
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2020/07/wheat-sep20-60min-chart.gif)
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2020/07/wheat-sep20-daily-chart-2.gif)
In addition to the momentum failure and complete wave sequence, the weekly log chart below shows the market’s rejection once again of the upper-quarter of its massive, multi-year lateral range that has been and remains a condition from which bulls need to tread very cautiously and suspiciously.
These issues considered and after being advised to neutralize bullish exposure on a failure below 5.26, traders are further advised to first approach recovery attempts to the 5.35-area OB as corrective selling opportunities ahead of a larger-degree correction or reversal lower with a recovery above 5.52 required to negate this call and warrant its cover. In lieu of such 5.52+ strength, we anticipate lateral-to-lower prices in the period ahead that could include another reversion to the middle of this market’s incessant range around the 4.80-area or lower.
![](https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/images/2020/07/wheat-weekly-chart-1.gif)