The new “work-from-home” population has gone through the process of “pantry-stockpiling” of coffee, while coffee shops and restaurants remain closed, allowing only for drive-thru purchases. All the while, a strong U.S. dollar and continued “risk-off” mentality adds pressure to most all commodity prices. In addition to the lack of bull participation on the July coffee contract, the outlook of Brazil’s extremely large crop on the horizon, new bullish news will be needed to support coffee prices. Our friends at the Hightower Group reported that “the outlook for a record-size crop out of Brazil this year continues to be a bearish force.” I could not agree more.  As demand for coffee is kept in check as we wait it out for more testing, treatments and ultimately a vaccine for Covid-19, the bulls will likely keep their distance from coffee.

Coffee Jul ’20 Daily Chart

Adam Tuiaana

Adam grew up in Chicago and was always fascinated by the fast-paced action found in the futures market hub there. He began participating in the financial markets by trading stocks in 1997 and began his career as a trading consultant with RJO Futures in March of 2009. At RJO, he specializes in risk management and disciplined trading plans, and is focused on educating clients with one-on-one consulting and training. Adam believes the best approach to trading is to take a measured and objective approach and let the markets guide your decisions.