Weather is again the focus this week in the cattle markets. A storm is expected to come through the northern plains, this will bring support to the market at the 50-day moving average or the 119.600 price level. With the June contract trading at a $5-$6 discount to the cash market, when compared to the 5-year average of $14 discount, the seasonal break that usually occurs is not there due to the poor feedlot conditions and rising pork prices. Cash prices in Nebraska yesterday traded at $126.00 and that was up $1 from Monday.  The USDA estimated cattle slaughter came in at 120,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 240,000 head, up from 235,000 last week and up from 238,000 a year ago.USDA boxed beef cutout values were up 30 cents at mid-session yesterday and closed 35 cents lower at $228.32. This was up from $225.73 the prior week. Overall, I suspect slow trading due to the focus being on outside markets throughout this week. Technically there have been bearish signals triggered with the daily stochastics crossing over, including momentum studies continuing to decline to oversold levels and a possible head and shoulders. The downside objective would be the 119.600 today while if we see a break through the neckline of the head and shoulders, the downside objective is 118.000

Live Cattle Jun ’19 Daily Chart

Live Cattle Jun '19 Daily Chart

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Peter McGinn

Peter graduated from DePaul University with a degree in Economics. Peter started his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then moved on to TradeStation Securities for a time before starting as a Market Strategist at RJO Futures in 2018.