Weather has still been the catalyst for price swings. The models have been changing almost daily, which has made for price swings almost on a daily basis. The bottom line though is that there is still yield loss due to the month of heat and dryness in the major growing areas.
Coming into the month of August, most of the corn has pollinated. Talk of cooler and somewhat wetter weather patterns abounds, but the question is, will the pattern be as wet as predicted? Where will it happen? How much good will it do? The moisture will help late planted corn.
The August report is going to be important as well. This month’s report will be based on USDA’s process of taking ear count. With the variance of the weather and plantings, it could be difficult to be very accurate. A truly accurate yield won’t be available until we approach harvest and/or actually begin harvesting.
As a reminder, we are not the only game in town. We have adequate, old crop supply. The producer is now waiting to sell more of his old crop on a rally. It’s difficult to be too short at these levels.
Dec ’17 Corn Daily Chart