Gold futures will continue to keep a data driven mindset that will have a spillover effect on the probability of the speed of another rate hike. Anticipation remains high for 1 more rate hike this year but the possibility of the FED zeroing in on winding down its $4.5 trillion portfolio of mortgage and treasure securities may play more of a significant role in direction. This is in effect is reverse quantitative easing. We should get further insight over the next few weeks when more significant data comes out.
Analysis and Outlook
The daily gold chart shows momentum indicator Stochastics in oversold territory and this is giving a cautionary bearish indication. ADX, which measures strength of the trend, has finally started to weaken indicating that the strength of the downward trend is starting to run out of steam. Gold needs to move back through $1240 and show some force back to the upside to get the bull party back started. Watch for a situation where gold consolidates at this level and becomes range bound until the next drop-off in the stock market or significantly weaker data out of this week’s economic reports. Pushes through the $1240 could indicate a move to $1300 which is the next level of psychological resistance. Caution should be taken if we see a close below 1200 where a washout could occur into uncharted territories.