Cocoa futures have been trading around 2500. After the lows we saw earlier this month, cocoa futures have been able to rally slightly despite renewed fears of Covid lockdowns. As the Omicron variant spreads and the medical world tries to figure out next steps – commodities have been volatile.

On the cocoa side of the equation, supply issues could be what this market needs to get and trade above 2600 in the March contract. Many areas of the cocoa world are coming in with lower production estimates. Weather premium could also still boost prices as well. If demand can increase in the coming weeks and months, these factors could be just enough to carry the cocoa bulls higher. COT data will give us an idea where trader’s heads are at as we approach year end.

For now, traders should take a cautious approach as the Fed announcement earlier this week gave us an idea of what the next two years could look like. The ECB changing its course of action has also affected the markets and potentially the longer-term moves in their system.

Cocoa Mar ’22 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.