Posted on Dec 07, 2023, 08:22 by Dave Toth

Today’s decisive, impulsive break above a goodly amount of resis6tance from the low-to-mid-68-handle-area reaffirms our developing base/reversal count and leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 67.92 and 67.02 that now serve as our new short- and longer-term parameters from which a continued bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.

The daily chart above clearly shows the past month’s recovery that cannot be ignored as the early stages of a major reversal higher predicated on:

  • a bullish divergence in WEEKLY momentum from
  • a new 33-YEAR historical low at 66.11 amidst
  • historically bearish sentiment/contrary opinion levels and
  • an arguably complete 5-wave Elliott sequence from Jan’23’s 79.19 high and possibly from Jan’21’s 97.55 high.

Until/unless this market weakens below at least the bull risk parameters defined above, and certainly 14-Nov’s 66.11 low, the extent of a major correction or multi-quarter or even multi-year reversal should not be underestimated.  These issues considered, a bullish policy sand exposure remain advised with a failure below 67.92 required for shorter-term traders to step aside and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 67.02 for longer-term institutional players to follow suit.  In lieu of sch weakness, further and possibly steep gains should not surprise.

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