Global Equities: A relatively mixed bag around the world this morning, US trading slightly lower (off the overnight lows), Europe down all across the region with Spain leading -1.30%, and Asian equities higher across the region. Key earnings are due out in the US today, including the much lauded TSLA – which in our opinion has moved more on hope and FOMO rather than economic sanity, but who can even tell the difference anymore. Microsoft also reports after the bell.

Metals: Gold and Silver continued their climb overnight, Silver +6.50% last night at one point and once again outpacing Gold.  Metals, specifically Gold are telling you that rates are going to be low, the Dollar is going to be weak, and expectations for inflation will be high well out into the future. Got that? Down rates, Down Dollar, up Gold. Metals are immediate-term overbought, as they were yesterday and the day before, look at booking some gains so you can replant your positions from the low end of our range, which is now north of 1800oz for Gold.

Oil- Trading down this morning on the larger than expected build in API inventories yesterday (+7M bbls w/w), which begs the question of the strength of demand. EIA report is due out today at 9:30 CST. There’s a topic on the table in the next stimulus bill presented by Mitch McConnel that would protect companies from employee lawsuits after returning to work. I happen to think this issue is very important for energy demand, as it would encourage companies to bring employee’s back therefore bolstering demand for fuel and travel back to work. I’ll tell you, from what I’ve seen the Chicago Loop is a ghost town during what used to be peak rush hour. Air travel fuel demand remains down 30% from last year.

US/China relations seem to be going “splendidly” this morning. The US has accused Chinese hackers of attempting to steal C19 vaccine intellectual property, and subsequently ordered the Chinese to close down their consulate in Houston Tx. Reports of a fire at the consulate this morning stem from rumors of the Chinese burning documents inside.

Stimulus– hearing that congress currently at an impasse on the next round of stimulus. Many of the benefits from the previous rounds of stimulus are set to expire at month end. Developing….

Long on patience, process, and Stagflation, short on FOMO.  Good luck.

Actionable Levels

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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