RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

I’ve written about the Japanese Yen for the past few weeks and its ability to survive this endless run higher in both US and Japanese Equities.  As we all know, the Japanese economy carries an outrageous Debt to GDP ratio which has largely turned off speculators in the long Yen vs. USD trade.  However, recent GDP and Inflation readings are suggesting there may be some value in Yen moving forward and may be able to regain some “safe haven” status in the New Year.    

Japan GDP:

Q/Q:          0.6% vs 0.3% prior

Q/Q SAAR: 2.5% vs 1.4% prior

Year/Year:  2.1% vs 1.7% prior

Japan Producer Price Index:

Month/Month: 0.4% vs 0.3% prior

Year/Year:           3.5% vs 3.4% prior

From a technical perspective, the Yens ability to hold its long-term trend line support line at the 87.50 – 88.00 area, also keeps me interested in trading the upside in early 2018.  While we’ve largely been trading sideways in Q4 ’17, and we may be near-term overvalued at present levels (89.65 March basis) we’ll keep an eye out for Key Support at 88.30-88.00 (March basis) for bullish opportunity’s in the Yen.  

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

Japanese_Yen_Weekly_Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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