RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Oil has continued to move lower following an early week surge as the market assess the ongoing demand destruction as coronavirus cases continue to surge in the US and Europe with added restrictions being implemented. This has been coupled with an unexpected rise US crude stockpiles as inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels. Global consumption and dampening fuel demand continue to remain at the forefront despite the recent vaccine developments as the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global demand prospects were unlikely to accelerate well into 2021. In addition, the sentiment was echoed by OPEC, lowering its demand forecast stating that consumption was likely to rebound slower than initially expected. Notwithstanding, Algeria’s energy minister noted that OPEC+ may extend current production cuts of 7.7 million bpd into 2021 or deepen if necessary. OPEC+ is not expected to move forward with easing supply restrictions as was initially expected due to the increasingly grim demand outlook. This comes as US and Libyan production have continued to rise with Libyan production reportedly now up to 1.2 million bpd. The market has transitioned to bullish trend after breaking out above (~39 trend) but has been correcting from the top end of its range earlier in the week with today’s range seen between 38.31 – 42.89.

Crude Oil Dec ’20 Daily Chart
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Alexander Turro

Market Strategist
Alex began his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade after graduating with a BA/BS from Indiana University. He then went on to work for a proprietary trading software company before joining RJO Futures as a Market Strategist.
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