While the fundamentals on crude oil are mixed, the path of least resistance still remains to the upside. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to firm crude oil, along with OPEC cuts starting to show in the supply numbers. On the other hand, US crude oil storage is at an all-time high of 536 million barrels. Baker Hughes reported the US oil rig count is at a 2 year high of 672 rigs up 10 from the previous week. These bearish factors are helping to offset some of the bullishness, but the bulls are definitely still in control. 

From a technical standpoint, the trend is clearly higher with the market blowing through the 200-day moving average last week. The upside target and first resistance level comes in at $53.20, which was a big support level for January and February. RSI is starting the show the market as getting close to overbought.   


Crude Light Daily Chart


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Frank D. Cholly

Senior Market Strategist
Frank has been involved in many aspects of the futures business, from taking and placing orders to providing high-quality order execution service. As a second-generation participant in markets at the Chicago Board of Trade, Frank spent his early years working in the Treasury bond pit servicing both institutional and retail clients. He then expanded his brokerage duties and began covering a wide range of markets, including stock index, metals, grains and the balance of the interest rate sector. Ultimately, he turned his full-time focus to the grain market, dealing primarily with proprietary and commercial business. Frank was a senior commodities broker at Lind-Waldock prior to joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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