We received Eurozone inflation data in the overnight, and it slowed -0.9% vs 0.4% m/m and 1.3% vs 1.4% y/y.  This is in the wake of a softer German PPI reading (2.1% vs 2.3% prior y/y) and ZEW (Business Conditions) Survey reading of 92.3 vs a prior reading of 95.2 m/m and 17.8 vs 20.4 prior y/y .  For the time being our outlook on Europe and the Euro currency is tilting bearish.  A stronger exchange rate vs the USD is not exactly a boon for Europe’s exporting business climate.  If you take a look at a MCH Euro Weekly Chart we have been making a series of lower highs and lower lows for the past four weeks, but largely trapped inside a 1.25-1.22 trading range.  Technically speaking, a break of the low end of the range (1.2230), could drive the Euro back down towards 1.2075. The fundamental catalyst would likely be a more dovish leaning Mario Draghi as a result of weaker economic data.  For the time being, our recommendation is to manage the range of 1.25-1.22. The longer term (3-6 month) Euro chart remains bullish trend, but beware of a near-term correction higher in the USD and and softer economic data releases out of Europe.

Euro Mar ’18 Daily Chart


800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
Read More