RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Overnight Highlights:

*French PMI misses expectations and decelerates m/m to 49.0 vs 53.7 Forecasted and 52.4 previous

*Eurozone PMI misses expectation decelerating m/m to 51.7 vs 52.9 forecasted and 51.8 previous

Global Equities:

*US Futures indicating a lower open led by the Small Cap Russell 2000 Index -0.88%

*Europe lower across the board, led by Germany -1.08%; France -1.09%; Italy -1.25%; and Spain -1.12%

*Asian Equites largely higher across the board with the Shanghai Index +0.50%

Top Market Movers Overnight

Treasuries/Yields

*Following an attempted break to higher levels from the “hawkish” Fed Minutes release, the 10yr yield has slumped back 10bps to 0.62%

*Treasuries catching a bid on a “risk-off” morning in Global Macro Markets

*OPINION: We’ll continue to trade Treasuries with a “Bullish Bias” until our quant signals suggest otherwise – NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION FOR TODAY

*Our range analysis suggest covering some treasury exposure today as we’re now immediately triggering “overbought”

US Dollar:

*Gaining some fervor overnight off of the weak European PMI data and a flight to safety bid off of a weaker US Equity Open

*We contend there’s a small window for the dollar to rally, however it shouldn’t get too far.  Upside to 93.90 in our model

*We remain BEARISH OF THE USD

Gold:

*Trading lower overnight, retesting some immediate-term trend support at 1915.00 in our model with downside to potentially 1895.00

*Held back by a stronger USD, and a general “risk-off” outlook headed into the day

*OPINION: Gold is in the “Buy to Accumulate” Zone in and around the 1915-1895 level  

*Gold remains BULLISH trend on all time frames coupled with BULLISH momentum, but momentum appears to be turning “Neutral”*We largely expect a range bound trade between 1874-2010 until bullish fundamentals reassert themselves.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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