RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Headed into the week we have the Republican Nationals Convention that kicks off tonight, and backloaded into weeks end is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.  Dueling tropical storms, Marco and Laura are set to make back-to-back landfalls over the next few days threatening to shut in Crude Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.  Oil Futures are +0.90% as a result.

Global Equities:

*A strong overnight session in all major world indices led higher by Germany +2.23%

* The US and China also building off of last weeks momentum, with the US NASDAQ and SP500 +1.03% and 0.83% respectively; Shanghai gains 0.15%

Top Market Movers

Metals:

*Gold and Silver pumping out gains +0.48% and 1.22% respectively on another “weak dollar” morning in the US.

*Our contention is that Gold and Silver have found a range to trade in for a while.  Gold 1895-2010 and Silver 24.00-29.30 for the next several weeks.

* WE REMAIN BULLISH ON BOTH AND RECOMMEND ONLY TRADING WITH A “BULLISH BIAS” UNTIL FURTHER EVIDENCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE

*Copper gained +2.2% last week to 2.9265 (but well off the weekly highs of 3.0295)  remains bullish trend, but appears to be stalling.  The pattern on the charts may suggest a test of 2.800 – BUT WE REMAIN BULLISH OF COPPER IN THE LONG-TERM UNTIL MACRO FUNDAMENTALS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

Agriculture:

*Soybeans and Corn are gaining this morning, Up 0.66% and 0.88% respectively.  We contend that something has changed in terms of the technical picture of the Ag markets.  The past 2 weeks we’ve seen Agriculture join in on the broader commodity rally as Corn gained 7% or 23 cents and Soybeans more that 40 cents.

*Our technical outlook suggest a move up to $9.60 a bushel in Soybeans in coming weeks – So long as the demand side of the market lives up to its end of the bargain….China?

Currencies:

*The Foreign currency space continues to take advantage of a weaker USD, but momentum appears to be flattening or stalling.

*The Euro is leading the way this morning +0.44% vs the USD

*The USD was higher last week by 0.2% (a “unicorn” event these days), but is trading back under 93.00 this morning as we head into a very “noisy” week of politics and of course the Jackson Hole Symposium.  We remain bearish of the USD and will welcome “short” opportunities from around the 93.90-94.20 level – subject to change.

Key Economic Data Releases (USA):

*Consumer Confidence on Tuesday Aug 25

*Durable Goods at 7:30am Wednesday Aug 26

*EIA Energy Data at 9:30am Wednesday Aug 26

*US GDP (Q2) Second Estimate on Thursday Aug 27th

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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