Nothing substantial overnight. The Chinese Yuan did hit a 16month high vs the USD on stronger reported Industrial Production growth.
USA coming in firm today w/ SP500 +0.76%, NQ +1.07%, Russ 2K +0.70%
Europe- firm across the region with GER +0.33%, FRA +0.48%, UK +1.12%, SPA +1.26%
Asia- Shanghai +0.51% and KOSPI +0.65%
*Yesterday’s market breadth was strong, we’ll look for clues today in breadth and volatility as possible near-term direction.
*Industrial Production due up in the US forecasting +1.0% vs +3.0% prior reading
*The Federal Reserve kicks off its two day meeting today.
Overnight Futures Markets Snapshot
*Gold +0.70% approaching immediate overbought BUT remains bullish trend and is recapturing bullish momentum
*Silver +1.44% to 27.71
*Platinum: +2.02%. I’m adding this to my list of possible long positions as momentum recaptures the “green” – immediate overbought. Has upside room to run as its far underperformed the rest of the metals complex. A retake of 1050 oz would be very bullish for PL. We’ll of course remain steadfast and look for oversold signals within its bullish trend and bullish momentum set-up.
*Copper- no surprise the market is gaining overnight fervor from the reported Chinese IP data. +0.64% but moving into immediate overbought territory.
*10yr benchmark upticks to 0.68% – we remain bullish on Bonds, Bearish Yields through full investment cycle until further notice. Nothing really noteworthy here other than the potential for a move back to a Growth and Inflation slowdown backdrop in Q4 2020 due to high sustained levels of unemployment and a beleaguered US consumer. We’re not quite ready to go “there” yet, but the probabilities are rising.
*Chinese Yuan reached a 16 mo vs the USD overnight on the stronger data out of China
*USD- watching the USD closely here for possible stabilization at the low end of the range. The Fed is not expected to produce anything “new” in terms of policy. *We remain bearish of the USD until further notice. A move to Scenario 4 (GROWTH SLOWING/INFLATION SLOWING) in Q4 would put the breaks on the USD – we’re not ready to make that call yet, but as aforementioned there is a rising probability.
*Stay bullish in Soybeans but immediate overbought at the moment. Chance for 10.25/bushel
*Corn has upside (immediate-term) to 3.75/bushel
*Sugar- immediate oversold/still bullish trend, a low is due soon.
*Coffee- a big wipe-out in Coffee over the last day and a half has coffee immediate oversold this morning – still holding/barely its bullish trend
Execute at the edges within the trend – Good Luck