RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Nothing substantial overnight.  The Chinese Yuan did hit a 16month high vs the USD on stronger reported Industrial Production growth. 

Global Equities:
USA coming in firm today w/ SP500 +0.76%, NQ +1.07%, Russ 2K +0.70%

Europe- firm across the region with GER +0.33%, FRA +0.48%, UK +1.12%, SPA +1.26%

Asia- Shanghai +0.51% and KOSPI +0.65%

*Yesterday’s market breadth was strong, we’ll look for clues today in breadth and volatility as possible near-term direction.  

*Industrial Production due up in the US forecasting +1.0% vs +3.0% prior reading

*The Federal Reserve kicks off its two day meeting today.   

Overnight Futures Markets Snapshot

Metals:
*Gold +0.70% approaching immediate overbought BUT remains bullish trend and is recapturing bullish momentum

*Silver +1.44% to 27.71

*Platinum: +2.02%.  I’m adding this to my list of possible long positions as momentum recaptures the “green” – immediate overbought.  Has upside room to run as its far underperformed the rest of the metals complex.  A retake of 1050 oz would be very bullish for PL.  We’ll of course remain steadfast and look for oversold signals within its bullish trend and bullish momentum set-up. 

*Copper- no surprise the market is gaining overnight fervor from the reported Chinese IP data.  +0.64% but moving into immediate overbought territory. 

Bonds/Yields:
*10yr benchmark upticks to 0.68% – we remain bullish on Bonds, Bearish Yields through full investment cycle until further notice.  Nothing really noteworthy here other than the potential for a move back to a Growth and Inflation slowdown backdrop in Q4 2020 due to high sustained levels of unemployment and a beleaguered US consumer.  We’re not quite ready to go “there” yet, but the probabilities are rising.   

Currencies:
*Chinese Yuan reached a 16 mo vs the USD overnight on the stronger data out of China

*USD- watching the USD closely here for possible stabilization at the low end of the range.  The Fed is not expected to produce anything “new” in terms of policy.  *We remain bearish of the USD until further notice.  A move to Scenario 4 (GROWTH SLOWING/INFLATION SLOWING) in Q4 would put the breaks on the USD – we’re not ready to make that call yet, but as aforementioned there is a rising probability. 

Grains:
*Stay bullish in Soybeans but immediate overbought at the moment.  Chance for 10.25/bushel

*Corn has upside (immediate-term) to 3.75/bushel

Softs:
*Sugar- immediate oversold/still bullish trend, a low is due soon. 

*Coffee- a big wipe-out in Coffee over the last day and a half has coffee immediate oversold this morning – still holding/barely its bullish trend

Execute at the edges within the trend – Good Luck

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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