Just a few notes this morning,

*Stock selling has intensified a bit in the overnight SPY -0.65%, NQ -0.80%, RTY -0.80%. 

*The Russell 2000 has flipped back to bearish trend, SPY Bullish, NQ Neutral

*The USD has gained a little ground vs the euro, perhaps on a slight flight to safety bid. USD remains immediate OS vs euro here. 

*Japanese yen looks like it may have secured an intermediate term “bottom” that could lift JPY/USD back to 92.00

*Yields have ticked up to 1.73%; The yield curve has flattened for the 5th straight day to 80.5bps vs 82 yesterday, and 88 on Monday

*Copper back down -2.35%

Is growth slowing front running the inflation signal? Retail sales just bombed m/m to -1.9%. We saw more hot inflation data (highly probable it slows over the next 1 to 2 months), that takes us straight into Scenario 4. 

Be careful out there. Embrace the non-linearity of this market – Remember:  yesterday’s market is not today’s, and these market need not follow any patterns nor ANYONE’s rules.   Stay small….if you lose too much in a bad tape, you can’t participate in the good ones. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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