Bull and Bear Market

Currency wars seem to be making their way back in vogue. With the weakening data in Europe and subsequent impending recession (Italy is in a recession right now), we know that the ECB will have to continue to deliver more dovish speak and eventually act upon it. This really does a number on the Fed’s plans to devalue the USD with its recent dovish monetary policy pivot. As we all know, the USD and Euro carry a nearly 100% inverse correlation, and with both central banks pivoting dovish on monetary policy, you can see the dilemma that’s taking hold in the currency space. So, if you don’t want too long of dollars because of the dovish Fed, and certainly not Euros, where do you go then? Gold. I honestly can’t think of a better scenario lining up for the Gold market at the present moment.  Also, we believe the Yen will be another big mover as we move through the cycle as theirs growing signs of decent within the BOJ in terms of future monetary policy. 

We remain resolute on our call in the S&P 500. There’s immediate downside risk approx. 100 pts lower.  Yes, our timing was off on this, just like our initial timing was off on the call in Bonds back in Sept, BUT we don’t think we’re going to be wrong going forward.  -41% implied vol discount this morning.  Good luck, back soon.

Trading Ranges….

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2612

2735

Nasdaq Comp

Bearish

6929

7232

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.61%

2.77%

VIX

Bullish

14.88

21.96

Oil

Bearish

51.23

54.95

Gold

Bullish

1292

1334

USD (Cash)

Neutral

94.92

96.56

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.13

1.15

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.08

1.0993

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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