RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Bull and Bear Market

CPI slowed m/m from 1.9 (last) to 1.6 this morning. The entire global stock market is overbought, right here right now. The VIX tapped the low end of our range today at 15.00, which is another massive complacency signal. Growth is still slowing – hence the dovish Fed. Europe is a complete nightmare, with Italy in recession and France well on its way. Eurozone industrial production fell to -4.2% y/y, yikes. I’d assume there’ll be a flurry of China trade headlines this week – But the sad truth is the data has to continue to be reported, and a U.S./China trade deal won’t stop economic gravity. There looks to be some “panic buying” off the open today. We’ll remain resolute. Remember, the Fed pivoted dovish for a reason, and we think we haven’t even scratched the surface as to how dovish they’ll likely be by year end.

Gold- I think we’re on the brink of break higher in Gold. The USD may be showing signs of topping based on yesterdays action. Along with Treasury Bonds, Gold remains our favorite macro positions on a going forward basis.

Bonds- Today’s a good day to begin accumulating Bonds again. The 10yr yield is 2.71%, approaching the top of our of 2.75%. Buy some here, buy some tomorrow, and then buy some next week – that’s how you build into a position.

Good Luck

rade Ranges:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2658

2752

Nasdaq Comp

Bearish

7152

7445

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.61%

2.75%

VIX

Bullish

14.99

20.67

Oil

Bearish

51.68

55.25

Gold

Bullish

1301

1326

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95

97.17

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.13

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.08

1.1087

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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