CPI slowed m/m from 1.9 (last) to 1.6 this morning. The entire global stock market is overbought, right here right now. The VIX tapped the low end of our range today at 15.00, which is another massive complacency signal. Growth is still slowing – hence the dovish Fed. Europe is a complete nightmare, with Italy in recession and France well on its way. Eurozone industrial production fell to -4.2% y/y, yikes. I’d assume there’ll be a flurry of China trade headlines this week – But the sad truth is the data has to continue to be reported, and a U.S./China trade deal won’t stop economic gravity. There looks to be some “panic buying” off the open today. We’ll remain resolute. Remember, the Fed pivoted dovish for a reason, and we think we haven’t even scratched the surface as to how dovish they’ll likely be by year end.
Gold- I think we’re on the brink of break higher in Gold. The USD may be showing signs of topping based on yesterdays action. Along with Treasury Bonds, Gold remains our favorite macro positions on a going forward basis.
Bonds- Today’s a good day to begin accumulating Bonds again. The 10yr yield is 2.71%, approaching the top of our of 2.75%. Buy some here, buy some tomorrow, and then buy some next week – that’s how you build into a position.
Good Luck
rade Ranges:
Market |
Trend |
Range Low |
Range High |
|
|
|
|
SP500 |
Bearish |
2658 |
2752 |
Nasdaq Comp |
Bearish |
7152 |
7445 |
10yr Yield |
Bearish |
2.61% |
2.75% |
VIX |
Bullish |
14.99 |
20.67 |
Oil |
Bearish |
51.68 |
55.25 |
Gold |
Bullish |
1301 |
1326 |
USD (Cash) |
Neutral |
95 |
97.17 |
EUR/USD |
Bearish |
1.13 |
1.14 |
USD/JPY |
Bearish |
1.08 |
1.1087 |
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