Meetings on top of meetings at the White House…..
Who needs to study the economic data when Trump and China are holding meetings? I don’t know, maybe I’m wasting my time and should just trade every headline CNBC flashes throughout the day but, algorithmic trading models of course are programmed to chase headline news and the media knows this….. Ignorance is bliss I suppose…..Yesterday’s “down” day in equities showed a 7% jump in Volume. Remember, risk starts out slowly and then happens all at once….Stocks up 10.5% out of the gates in 2019 – we don’t think this is sustainable – if you’ve caught the move in your stock accounts, you should book it.
Oil- rip city into our growth slowing/Inflation accelerating call into Q2 2019. Our bull/bear line in oil has risen to 55.52 – as long as we stay above this line we’re bullish trend on an immediate to intermediate term basis. We’ll look at adding oil to our list of “buys” BUT ONLY when we’re back at the low end of the range, you know the drill. Keep an eye out for the OVX (Oil Volatility Index) as it signals immediate term oversold. Oil range is 51.32-58.23.
10-yr Yields- we signaled a “buy” again in 10yrs this morning. What keeps me on the buy side in treasuries and bearish global yields is the fact that we know the rest of the world is slowing and that the U.S. 10-yr is yielding over 200 basis points more than most developed economies. What this says to outside investors is “come to the US for yield!” Check it out….German bunds yielding 0.09%, UK 1.16%. also note the divergence between Italy 2.86% +3bps vs Germany -3bps and UK -4bps.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
10-Year Government Bond Yields
|
COUNTRY |
YIELD |
1 DAY |
1 MONTH |
1 YEAR |
TIME (EST) |
|
|
0.09% |
-3 |
-14 |
-61 |
11:02 AM |
|
|
1.16% |
-4 |
-16 |
-39 |
11:02 AM |
|
France |
0.51% |
-3 |
-13 |
-46 |
11:02 AM |
|
Italy |
2.86% |
+3 |
+12 |
+79 |
11:02 AM |
|
Spain |
1.17% |
-3 |
-16 |
-34 |
11:02 AM |
|
Netherlands |
0.20% |
-2 |
-14 |
-55 |
11:02 AM |
|
Portugal |
1.48% |
-3 |
-24 |
-53 |
11:02 AM |
|
Greece |
3.78% |
+2 |
-31 |
-53 |
11:02 AM |
|
Switzerland |
-0.35% |
-1 |
-14 |
-44 |
11:01 AM |
Actionable Ranges:
|
Market |
Trend |
Range Low |
Range High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SP500 |
Bearish |
2684 |
2803 |
|
Nasdaq Comp |
Neutral |
7248 |
7555 |
|
10yr Yield |
Bearish |
2.60% |
2.71% |
|
VIX |
Bullish |
13.99 |
18.95 |
|
Oil |
Neutral |
51.32 |
58.23 |
|
Nat Gas |
Bearish |
525 |
286 |
|
Gold |
Bullish |
1309 |
1350 |
|
USD (Cash) |
Neutral |
95.92 |
97.25 |
|
EUR/USD |
Bearish |
1.11 |
1.14 |
|
USD/JPY |
Bearish |
1.0925 |
1.111 |
Good Luck!
Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email.
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